China Threatens Taiwan, Again?
A recent article in the Washington Post reports the story of more recent sabre-rattling by the Chinese government. According to the story:
China enacted a law Monday authorizing the use of force against Taiwan if it moves toward formal independence, codifying its long-standing threat to attack the island. The move could provoke a popular backlash in Taiwan and quickly unravel recent progress in cross-strait relations.
The National People's Congress, the ruling Communist Party's rubber-stamp parliament, approved the anti-secession law by a vote of 2,896 to 0, with two abstentions, on the last day of its annual session. The action defied U.S. appeals for restraint and strong protests by Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian as well as some of his political rivals.
I agree with Joe Gandelman in his statement that it will most likely simply heighten tensions without really instilling a fear in President Chen's government, nor will it instill a fear in Taiwan's people. Tough Taiwanese politicians who "dare" to stand up to Chinese saber rattling also do well in politics--Lee Teng Hui received an 80% support rating for his theory on the two states, and Chen Shui Bian received similar support for his one country on each side of the straight theory. While the Taiwanese seem to not have a high thirst for independence, seeing Taiwanese culture as something while slightly different than Chinese culture, not distinct enough to warrant independence, continuous sabre-rattling will result in the consolidation of independence movements in Taiwan.
Peaceful reunification, at this point does not seem possible, unless China becomes a thoroughly democratic society. Taiwan is one of the bustling liberal democracies in Asia, along with South Korea and Japan. Taiwan has a growing middle class, growing incomes, and a incredibly high standard of living--especially when compared to China. Taiwan has one of the largest foreign currency reserves in the world, thus buffering it from massive hits from worldwide economic downturns. Thus, the reasons for a reunification, at least from the Taiwanese perspective seem small. The other extreme would be a forced reunification via a military invasion of Taiwan. It appears to me that a military invasion of Taiwan would be difficult. First, there's the small problem of the Taiwan straits that must be crossed for a direct invasion of Taiwan. The transport ships would be sitting ducks for Taiwanese aircraft and defense missiles. Secondly, the Taiwanese military, what it makes up for in numbers is in its arsenal. Flying US and French fighter jets, and heavily armed with modern weapons from US and other European missiles and ordinances, the People's Liberation Army could find it difficult, if not impossible to invade Taiwan. Third, and most importantly, it would appear that an invasion of Taiwan would be counter-productive to China's goals of reunification. An invasion could destroy the infrastructure already in place, and could destroy the thriving Taiwanese economy, thus providing a burden upon the already strapped Chinese economy. An invasion of Taiwan would also provoke world furor against China, and would provoke a Sino-American conflict that would result in few victors and many deaths.
What should happen is the status quo. Leave well enough alone. Taiwan is doing fine right now, as is China. Reunify only when the conditions are prime--i.e. when China becomes a liberal democracy. Then, and only then, would a reunification be fair and just for the Taiwanese. Saber-rattling will not frighten the Taiwanese to reunification--rather it will drive the Taiwanese to the pro-independence camps.
China enacted a law Monday authorizing the use of force against Taiwan if it moves toward formal independence, codifying its long-standing threat to attack the island. The move could provoke a popular backlash in Taiwan and quickly unravel recent progress in cross-strait relations.
The National People's Congress, the ruling Communist Party's rubber-stamp parliament, approved the anti-secession law by a vote of 2,896 to 0, with two abstentions, on the last day of its annual session. The action defied U.S. appeals for restraint and strong protests by Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian as well as some of his political rivals.
I agree with Joe Gandelman in his statement that it will most likely simply heighten tensions without really instilling a fear in President Chen's government, nor will it instill a fear in Taiwan's people. Tough Taiwanese politicians who "dare" to stand up to Chinese saber rattling also do well in politics--Lee Teng Hui received an 80% support rating for his theory on the two states, and Chen Shui Bian received similar support for his one country on each side of the straight theory. While the Taiwanese seem to not have a high thirst for independence, seeing Taiwanese culture as something while slightly different than Chinese culture, not distinct enough to warrant independence, continuous sabre-rattling will result in the consolidation of independence movements in Taiwan.
Peaceful reunification, at this point does not seem possible, unless China becomes a thoroughly democratic society. Taiwan is one of the bustling liberal democracies in Asia, along with South Korea and Japan. Taiwan has a growing middle class, growing incomes, and a incredibly high standard of living--especially when compared to China. Taiwan has one of the largest foreign currency reserves in the world, thus buffering it from massive hits from worldwide economic downturns. Thus, the reasons for a reunification, at least from the Taiwanese perspective seem small. The other extreme would be a forced reunification via a military invasion of Taiwan. It appears to me that a military invasion of Taiwan would be difficult. First, there's the small problem of the Taiwan straits that must be crossed for a direct invasion of Taiwan. The transport ships would be sitting ducks for Taiwanese aircraft and defense missiles. Secondly, the Taiwanese military, what it makes up for in numbers is in its arsenal. Flying US and French fighter jets, and heavily armed with modern weapons from US and other European missiles and ordinances, the People's Liberation Army could find it difficult, if not impossible to invade Taiwan. Third, and most importantly, it would appear that an invasion of Taiwan would be counter-productive to China's goals of reunification. An invasion could destroy the infrastructure already in place, and could destroy the thriving Taiwanese economy, thus providing a burden upon the already strapped Chinese economy. An invasion of Taiwan would also provoke world furor against China, and would provoke a Sino-American conflict that would result in few victors and many deaths.
What should happen is the status quo. Leave well enough alone. Taiwan is doing fine right now, as is China. Reunify only when the conditions are prime--i.e. when China becomes a liberal democracy. Then, and only then, would a reunification be fair and just for the Taiwanese. Saber-rattling will not frighten the Taiwanese to reunification--rather it will drive the Taiwanese to the pro-independence camps.
posted by Kenn at 8:30 AM
1 Comments:
Kenn,
Thanks for swinging by "Voice in the Wilderness". I read your post on China. Interesting stuff. I like to keep up on what's happening in the Asia Pac region. To that end, check out another recent post at TexasTommy.org, What $.50 Can Tell You About the State of the World.
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